Forex Trading systems can give you a ready made way to make profits from FOREX trading.
The problem is 90% are junk and are not worth the money.
Read more about Forex Trading Systems & Forex Currency Trading
Forex Trading
Forex Trading With Confidence. If you are looking for an edge in forex day trading,then this is going to be the most exciting message you ever read. "Guide To Profitable Forex Day Trading" is the quickest way to learn foreign exchange trading.
Forex Trading
Forex Trading
DAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELS
USD/SGD
Today’s support: - 1.5162 and 1.5143 (main), where correction is possible.Break would give 1.5122, where correction also may be. Then 1.5097. Break of the latter would result in 1.5084. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.5072. Continuation will 1.5054 and 1.5036.
Today’s resistance: - 1.5213 and 1.5238 (main). Break would give 1.5256, where a correction is possible. Then 1.5274. If a strong impulse, we’d see 1.5287. Continuation will give 1.5303.
EUR/CHF
Today’s support: - 1.6400 and 1.6388(main), where correction may happen. Break would present 1.6359, where a correction may also be. Then 1.6334. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.6320. Continuation will give 1.6302.
Today’s resistance: - 1.6472(main). Break would give 1.6484, where a correction may be. Then 1.6501. Break of the latter would give 1.6513. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.6525. Continuation will bring 1.6548.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today’s support: - 12 439.65(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12 408.80, where correction also can be. Then 12 386.24. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 12 370.80. Continuation will bring 12 352.52.
Today’s resistance: - 12 532.52(main), where a a delay and correction may happen.Break would bring 12 566.20, where a correction may happen.Then 12 578.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 12 605.63. Continuation would bring 12 616.86.
Belarusian forex reserves rise 11.5 PCT in 2007 Q1 to 1.9 billion USD
Minsk, April 12 (NNN-BELTA) The gold and foreign currency reserves of Belarus increased by 202.3 million USD, or 11.5 per cent, to reach more than 1.9 billion USD in the first quarter of this year, according to preliminary estimates.
BelTA has been told by the information department of the National Bank of Belarus that the growth of the international assets of the country was fueled mainly by purchase/sale and conversion of foreign currency by the National Bank. These operations helped grow the gold and foreign currency reserves by 171 million USD.
The other factors which contributed to the build-up of the reserves were profits, increasing liabilities to foreign banks and cost of precious metals and gems and also an increase of the funds of the finance ministry in the National Bank of Belarus.
In 2007, the gold and foreign currency reserves of Belarus are expected to increase by between 200 million and 400 million USD.
source
BelTA has been told by the information department of the National Bank of Belarus that the growth of the international assets of the country was fueled mainly by purchase/sale and conversion of foreign currency by the National Bank. These operations helped grow the gold and foreign currency reserves by 171 million USD.
The other factors which contributed to the build-up of the reserves were profits, increasing liabilities to foreign banks and cost of precious metals and gems and also an increase of the funds of the finance ministry in the National Bank of Belarus.
In 2007, the gold and foreign currency reserves of Belarus are expected to increase by between 200 million and 400 million USD.
source
Forex - Yen lower, euro up vs US dollar in Sydney afternoon ahead of ECB meeting
SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - The US dollar was firmer against the yen here but down against the euro ahead of tonight's European Central Bank meeting, dealers said.
They said interest rates in the euro zone are not expected to be changed, while attention will focus on ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet's outlook statement and signals that the central bank may hike interest rates at its next meeting in May.
At 2:20 pm in Sydney (0420 GMT), the dollar was at 119.45 yen from 119.35 in Sydney morning trade while the euro was at 1.3460 usd, higher from 1.3438 earlier.
CMC Markets chief analyst Ashraf Laidi said the upward course of the euro remains safely in check even in the case of a pullback to as low as 1.3280 usd with traders continuing to deem the pair as fundamentally and technically sound, with periodic dips seen as opportune entry points.
GFT senior analyst Ian Copsey said the immediate risk for the US dollar still appears to be to the downside but there are signs that these will not develop in a trend and should, before too long, cause a more significant correction.
He said despite the consensus that euro zone rates will be left unchanged, political pressures from member countries over the high level of the euro and interest rates will remain ahead.
This includes France which is due to undergo the first round of presidential elections on April 22 followed by the second round of voting on May 6.
However, Copsey noted, 'Trichet has tended to almost shun any pressure with what appears to be a single minded determination to employ his own policies.'
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hit a fresh 16-year high of 0.8274 usd. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data showing the jobless rate fell back to a seasonally adjusted 30-year low of 4.5 pct in March, after coming in at 4.6 pct in February.
Westpac Bank strategists said the Australian dollar has benefited from a steady string of positive data and events in recent sessions so today's labor data adds to the general feeling of optimism towards the currency.
They noted there are increasingly risks that some of the positives may be starting to fray slightly including suggestions the level of Rinker shareholder uptake for Mexico's Cemex 14.2 bln usd takeover bid may be low, while there are possibilities over the coming weekend that the G7 meeting will comment on the yen carry trade.
But, they said, 'this has not stopped the Australian dollar from making fresh highs for the move and with the US dollar on the back-foot, it is hard not to see this move continuing for now.'
Sydney 2.20 pm (0420 GMT) vs Sydney 9.53 am (2353 GMT)
US dollar
yen 119.45 vs 119.35
sfr 1.2206 vs 1.2202
Euro
usd 1.3460 vs 1.3438
yen 160.76 vs 160.36
sfr 1.6429 vs 1.6397
stg 0.6817 vs 0.6800
Sterling
usd 1.9746 vs 1.9757
yen 235.79 vs 235.76
sfr 2.4100 vs 2.4104
Australian dollar
usd 0.8250 vs 0.8244
stg 0.4179 vs 0.4173
yen 98.530 vs 98.375
New Zealand dollar
usd 0.7269 vs 0.7278
paul.daniel@xfn.com
source
They said interest rates in the euro zone are not expected to be changed, while attention will focus on ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet's outlook statement and signals that the central bank may hike interest rates at its next meeting in May.
At 2:20 pm in Sydney (0420 GMT), the dollar was at 119.45 yen from 119.35 in Sydney morning trade while the euro was at 1.3460 usd, higher from 1.3438 earlier.
CMC Markets chief analyst Ashraf Laidi said the upward course of the euro remains safely in check even in the case of a pullback to as low as 1.3280 usd with traders continuing to deem the pair as fundamentally and technically sound, with periodic dips seen as opportune entry points.
GFT senior analyst Ian Copsey said the immediate risk for the US dollar still appears to be to the downside but there are signs that these will not develop in a trend and should, before too long, cause a more significant correction.
He said despite the consensus that euro zone rates will be left unchanged, political pressures from member countries over the high level of the euro and interest rates will remain ahead.
This includes France which is due to undergo the first round of presidential elections on April 22 followed by the second round of voting on May 6.
However, Copsey noted, 'Trichet has tended to almost shun any pressure with what appears to be a single minded determination to employ his own policies.'
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hit a fresh 16-year high of 0.8274 usd. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data showing the jobless rate fell back to a seasonally adjusted 30-year low of 4.5 pct in March, after coming in at 4.6 pct in February.
Westpac Bank strategists said the Australian dollar has benefited from a steady string of positive data and events in recent sessions so today's labor data adds to the general feeling of optimism towards the currency.
They noted there are increasingly risks that some of the positives may be starting to fray slightly including suggestions the level of Rinker shareholder uptake for Mexico's Cemex 14.2 bln usd takeover bid may be low, while there are possibilities over the coming weekend that the G7 meeting will comment on the yen carry trade.
But, they said, 'this has not stopped the Australian dollar from making fresh highs for the move and with the US dollar on the back-foot, it is hard not to see this move continuing for now.'
Sydney 2.20 pm (0420 GMT) vs Sydney 9.53 am (2353 GMT)
US dollar
yen 119.45 vs 119.35
sfr 1.2206 vs 1.2202
Euro
usd 1.3460 vs 1.3438
yen 160.76 vs 160.36
sfr 1.6429 vs 1.6397
stg 0.6817 vs 0.6800
Sterling
usd 1.9746 vs 1.9757
yen 235.79 vs 235.76
sfr 2.4100 vs 2.4104
Australian dollar
usd 0.8250 vs 0.8244
stg 0.4179 vs 0.4173
yen 98.530 vs 98.375
New Zealand dollar
usd 0.7269 vs 0.7278
paul.daniel@xfn.com
source
DJ Forex Focus: Trade Tensions With China Will Hurt The Dollar
LONDON (Dow Jones)--As U.S. trade tensions with China ratchet higher, the dollar is only likely to suffer.
Any hopes that China might respond to U.S. pressure by accelerating the rise in the yuan appear as misplaced as ever.As Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London, points out, this is because China can't afford to.
"The export sector remains the most dynamic source of employment growth in China," Chertkow said.
"Maintenance of social stability depends on absorption of workers migrating from rural to urban areas and seeking private sector jobs as state-run enterprises are rationalized and/or privatized."
The need to preserve a competitive edge in international markets remains paramount. So, he added, "rather than agreeing to allow the (yuan) to float freely, the Chinese authorities are likely to continue to render the exchange rate regime 'gradually' more flexible."
However, this hasn't stopped the U.S. from piling on the pressure after first quarter data showed that the China's trade surplus nearly doubled to $46.44 billion from $23.31 billion in the first quarter of 2006. The surplus with the U.S. alone rose 21.3% to $34.68 billion.
Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department appeared to have signaled a new line of attack when it slapped duties on imports of Chinese coated paper. For the last 23 years, the U.S. had classified China as a non-market economy exempt from such duties.
This week, the U.S. followed this up with two complaints to the World Trade Organization over the alleged failure of the Chinese to curb copyright violations on intellectual rights and market access for U.S. movies, DVDs, music and books.
Chris Turner, an international economist with ING Financial Markets in London, suggested that this might well be the start of a more "sector/product specific" policy of complaint by the U.S. ahead of presidential elections in 2008.
China itself responded to the shift by warning that the U.S. moves will "seriously damage" trade relations between the two countries.
Officials then promptly turned down an invitations to attend this weekend's meeting of G7 finance ministers in Washington - claiming that they had more important domestic issues to contend with.
China's absence, said Lena Komileva, G7 economist with international brokers Tullett Prebon in London, is "indicative of rising U.S.-China trade tensions."
How large an impact this has on markets remains to be seen.
"The question for financial markets is whether such a localized, sector specific development represents the start of a more hawkish policy on China," said ING's Turner.
There is also the question over whether controlled increases in the value of the yuan since it was released from a fixed peg against the dollar in July last year are now starting to curb export growth.
The most recent data for March shows that China's trade surplus actually fell to $6.9 billion from $23.8 billion in February.
There's certainly little sign that China is about to step on the accelerator and allow the yuan to rise more rapidly. If anything, reported Ashley Davies, a senior currency strategist with UBS in Singapore, "the pace of yuan appreciation has actually eased over the last month to slightly more than 1% annualized in March versus appreciation of around 6% annualized a month towards the end of 2006."
"We maintain our forecast for around 6% appreciation this year for now," Davies added.
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chertkow agrees.
"Despite the protectionist measures, the Chinese authorities are likely to continue to resist calls to allow the (yuan) to float freely against the dollar," he said, forecasting that the yuan will be allowed to continue rising against the dollar by no more than 5.0% over the next year.
Early Thursday, the dollar was trading unchanged at Y119.33 at 0705 GMT, compared with late New York Wednesday, according to EBS. The U.S. currency had been helped by more hawkish-than-expected comments in the latest FOMC minutes, released Wednesday.
However, anticipation that the European Central Bank will signal another hike in rates in the next month or two after its policy meeting later in the day helped to push the euro up to $1.3470 from $1.3430.
The euro's advance against the dollar was also helped by its rally to a new record high at Y160.87 as investors continued to pursue carry trades at the cost of the Japanese currency.
source
Mid-Day Forex Technical Report - Dollar Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes, EUR/JPY Remains Strong
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report
Dollar Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes, EUR/JPY Remains Strong
Dollar is seen higher against Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen while remaining steady against Euro ahead of FOMC minutes. The minutes will be closely parsed by the markets for clues on future path of monetary policy of the Fed. But we believe that Bernanke should have elaborated most of the important points in the testimony to Joint Economic Committee. Those include change of wordings in last FOMC statement like replacing "additional firming", by "Future policy adjustments" which was then taken by the market as a clue for possible rate cut. Also, economic outlook was somewhat down graded, in particular the housing market was changed from "some tentative signs of stabilization" to "adjustment …is ongoing"
After all, Fed will likely remain hawkish and emphasize inflation as the predominant concern, in particular after core inflation bottomed at 2.6% last Dec and reaccelerated to 2.7% since then. As the economy continues to develop in a way that inflation pressure remains high, labor markets remain tight while capital spending and housing continues to slow down, the Fed's rate decision will become tighter. And hence, believe the most important focus should be the view of individual members and the change in hawkishness and dovishness of individual voting member will become more important. Before the FOMC minutes, Bernanke's speech will be also be closely watched.
Elsewhere, EUR/JPY remains strong and continues to make record higher today. Note that carry trade remains one key market moving factor with swissy and yen, as low yield currencies, continuing to weaken across the board. Sterling was earlier boosted by speculation that Treasury will propose allowing British based multinational companies to repatriate foreign profits free of tax, but upside against dollar is still limited by near term resistance of 1.9824.
FOREX-Dollar edges up as Fed minutes, speakers awaited
(Updates prices, adds quote, byline)
By David McMahon
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - The dollar crept up against the euro and yen on Wednesday, as the market awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which may indicate the central bank's prime concern is still inflation.
Meanwhile the yen hit a record low against the euro after the International Monetary Fund said it saw no need for "heavy-handed" action on the yen carry trade, in which investors have been borrowing in yen to finance purchases of higher-yielding currencies such as sterling.
The euro was up 0.3 percent at 160.35 yen
The Fed left benchmark overnight interest rates on hold at 5.25 percent in late March and removed a phrase pointing to further monetary tightening from its statement accompanying that decision. That initially led to a fall in the dollar and reinforced expectations that the Fed is closer to cutting rates to stabilize a housing-led slowdown in the economy.
But the market has since reinterpreted the changes to that statement, and Fed officials have continued to stress that they are keeping a close eye on inflation, implying they are in no hurry to lower rates.
"We suspect the minutes will certainly show a bias towards inflation, which could give the dollar a bit of strength," said David Powell, currency analyst at IDEAglobal in New York.The minutes of the Fed's monetary policy-setting committee meeting are due to be released at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT.)
The euro
The yen also hit fresh decade lows against the Australian and New Zealand dollars after the IMF's comments on the yen carry trade.
European officials have complained loudly about the yen's persistent weakness, which they worry gives Japanese exports an advantage. But there have been few signs that the issue will be taken up in earnest at a meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers in Washington on Friday.
Many analysts say yen carry trades are likely to continue after Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent this week, the lowest in the industrialized world.
Sterling
Traders were also awaiting speeches by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker.
Bernanke is due to speak at 1 p.m. (1700 GMT) on "market discipline and regulation", while Lacker is scheduled to talk at 12:45 p.m. (1645 GMT) on inflation and unemployment.
source
Economists fear herd-like forex flight
With India's forex reserve closing in on the $200 billion mark from just $1 billion in 1991, there is rising concern over possible exodus of overseas money, which in turn could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices across stock and property markets.
The non-FDI inflows today account for about 75% of the total reserves, which is making the country vulnerable to a possible large-scale flight of foreign investors from the country, economists believe.
Forex reserves are made up of foreign investments, short- term credits and banking capital, besides invisibles receipts and worker remittances.
A potential capital exodus could trigger a sharp fall in the asset prices across the board, including stocks and the rapidly growing real estate markets.
The country's foreign exchange reserves have increased by about $48 billion in the past one year on the back of strong capital flow, which in turn has been primarily driven by overseas corporate borrowings and the so-called "hot money" coming in form of portfolio equity flows.
While India has emerged as one of the favourite destinations for the portfolio equity flows from FIIs over the past few years, the sharp rise followed by a recent correction in the domestic bourses are raising concerns about large-scale profit booking by FIIs in the near future.
India Inc's growing appetite for merger and acquisitions as well as other expansion plans have also fuelled a sharp jump in the overseas borrowings by the domestic companies.
While RBI has been under pressure from corporates to allow greater overseas borrowing, economists fear that the apex bank could end up further tightening the noose if short-term borrowings continue to surge ahead.
source
The non-FDI inflows today account for about 75% of the total reserves, which is making the country vulnerable to a possible large-scale flight of foreign investors from the country, economists believe.
Forex reserves are made up of foreign investments, short- term credits and banking capital, besides invisibles receipts and worker remittances.
A potential capital exodus could trigger a sharp fall in the asset prices across the board, including stocks and the rapidly growing real estate markets.
The country's foreign exchange reserves have increased by about $48 billion in the past one year on the back of strong capital flow, which in turn has been primarily driven by overseas corporate borrowings and the so-called "hot money" coming in form of portfolio equity flows.
While India has emerged as one of the favourite destinations for the portfolio equity flows from FIIs over the past few years, the sharp rise followed by a recent correction in the domestic bourses are raising concerns about large-scale profit booking by FIIs in the near future.
India Inc's growing appetite for merger and acquisitions as well as other expansion plans have also fuelled a sharp jump in the overseas borrowings by the domestic companies.
While RBI has been under pressure from corporates to allow greater overseas borrowing, economists fear that the apex bank could end up further tightening the noose if short-term borrowings continue to surge ahead.
source
A Sound Forex Trading System
Before going head first into trading the forex market, you may want to consider whether or not your forex trading system is actually based on sound concepts that will make you money over the long term. The most important aspect of your forex trading system should be the expectancy it produces. The expectancy of your trading system will give you an idea of how much you could expect to make over a certain period of time. This is explained further below.
Although you should aim at producing a high expectancy trading system, you should also consider exactly what your system is made up of. Most traders would agree that your trading system shouldn’t just be composed of mainly ’lagging’ technical indicators, but rather include ‘leading’ indicators such as price action, and chart patterns.
The Mathematics Of A Trading System
The whole point of a forex trading system is to make you as much profits as possible while keeping your risk down to an absolute minimum. To determine whether or not your trading system does this, a few mathematical calculations can be made to determine how much your system will make on average, over a period of time. This is often referred to as the ‘Expectancy’ of a system.
To calculate the expectancy of your trading system, you will need to take into account the following:
1. How often is your system correct? 2. How much are your profits compared to your losses? 3. How often are you able to trade your system? And 4) What does it cost to trade?
The following is an example taking these factors into account to determine its expectancy. Assuming the following:
1. The system is correct 70% of the time. 2) On average your profits are 2 times the amount you loose (make 80 pips, loose 40 – assume spread cost is taken into account). 3) you are able to trade 3 times per week.
The formula to calculate expectancy is:
(probability of a win × average win) less the (probability of a loss × average loss) × opportunity
Using the above values we would conclude:
(0.70 × 80 pips) minus (0.30 × 40 pips) × 3
= 132 pips. This means you could expect to make on average 132 pips every week.
Combining Leading & Lagging Indicators
So why include leading indicators in your trading system? The fact is, leading indicators have more predictive power, and can predict market moves before they occur. Lagging indicators cannot do this, however they can still complement other leading indicators. Some well known leading indicators include: pivot points, chart patterns, fibonacci retracements, and candlestick patterns.
In fact candlesticks are probably one of the most powerful leading indicators, since you are observing price action itself. Traders around the world have found that candlesticks can add an extra dimension to their trading system. The reason for this can be largely contributed to Steve Nison’s book Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. Here is a quote from the book:
“If you are a seasoned technician, you will discover how joining Japanese candlesticks with your other technical tools can create a powerful synergy of techniques.”
Of course there are many different ways you can incorporate the use of leading indicators in your forex trading system. Here I have aimed at giving you a taste of what is possible. I also recommend that you check out investopedia’s lesson on how to develop a medium term forex trading system. This lesson also puts forward some interesting concepts which include combining leading indicators with other technical tools.
Conclusion
By including the use of leading indicators in your trading system, you will be able to add an edge to your system that will enable you to catch trends earlier, and hence make more money. And by understanding the basic mathematics involved in determining a trading systems profitability, you should be able to determine whether or not you have a good forex trading system.
Whether you are interested in learning the technical analysis techniques that are used by traders around the world, or are looking for a forex trading system, you should find something of interest here at trading-forex-online.com.
Although you should aim at producing a high expectancy trading system, you should also consider exactly what your system is made up of. Most traders would agree that your trading system shouldn’t just be composed of mainly ’lagging’ technical indicators, but rather include ‘leading’ indicators such as price action, and chart patterns.
The Mathematics Of A Trading System
The whole point of a forex trading system is to make you as much profits as possible while keeping your risk down to an absolute minimum. To determine whether or not your trading system does this, a few mathematical calculations can be made to determine how much your system will make on average, over a period of time. This is often referred to as the ‘Expectancy’ of a system.
To calculate the expectancy of your trading system, you will need to take into account the following:
1. How often is your system correct? 2. How much are your profits compared to your losses? 3. How often are you able to trade your system? And 4) What does it cost to trade?
The following is an example taking these factors into account to determine its expectancy. Assuming the following:
1. The system is correct 70% of the time. 2) On average your profits are 2 times the amount you loose (make 80 pips, loose 40 – assume spread cost is taken into account). 3) you are able to trade 3 times per week.
The formula to calculate expectancy is:
(probability of a win × average win) less the (probability of a loss × average loss) × opportunity
Using the above values we would conclude:
(0.70 × 80 pips) minus (0.30 × 40 pips) × 3
= 132 pips. This means you could expect to make on average 132 pips every week.
Combining Leading & Lagging Indicators
So why include leading indicators in your trading system? The fact is, leading indicators have more predictive power, and can predict market moves before they occur. Lagging indicators cannot do this, however they can still complement other leading indicators. Some well known leading indicators include: pivot points, chart patterns, fibonacci retracements, and candlestick patterns.
In fact candlesticks are probably one of the most powerful leading indicators, since you are observing price action itself. Traders around the world have found that candlesticks can add an extra dimension to their trading system. The reason for this can be largely contributed to Steve Nison’s book Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. Here is a quote from the book:
“If you are a seasoned technician, you will discover how joining Japanese candlesticks with your other technical tools can create a powerful synergy of techniques.”
Of course there are many different ways you can incorporate the use of leading indicators in your forex trading system. Here I have aimed at giving you a taste of what is possible. I also recommend that you check out investopedia’s lesson on how to develop a medium term forex trading system. This lesson also puts forward some interesting concepts which include combining leading indicators with other technical tools.
Conclusion
By including the use of leading indicators in your trading system, you will be able to add an edge to your system that will enable you to catch trends earlier, and hence make more money. And by understanding the basic mathematics involved in determining a trading systems profitability, you should be able to determine whether or not you have a good forex trading system.
Whether you are interested in learning the technical analysis techniques that are used by traders around the world, or are looking for a forex trading system, you should find something of interest here at trading-forex-online.com.
