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DAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELS

USD/SGD

Today’s support: - 1.5162 and 1.5143 (main), where correction is possible.Break would give 1.5122, where correction also may be. Then 1.5097. Break of the latter would result in 1.5084. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.5072. Continuation will 1.5054 and 1.5036.
Today’s resistance: - 1.5213 and 1.5238 (main). Break would give 1.5256, where a correction is possible. Then 1.5274. If a strong impulse, we’d see 1.5287. Continuation will give 1.5303.

EUR/CHF

Today’s support: - 1.6400 and 1.6388(main), where correction may happen. Break would present 1.6359, where a correction may also be. Then 1.6334. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.6320. Continuation will give 1.6302.
Today’s resistance: - 1.6472(main). Break would give 1.6484, where a correction may be. Then 1.6501. Break of the latter would give 1.6513. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.6525. Continuation will bring 1.6548.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today’s support: - 12 439.65(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12 408.80, where correction also can be. Then 12 386.24. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 12 370.80. Continuation will bring 12 352.52.
Today’s resistance: - 12 532.52(main), where a a delay and correction may happen.Break would bring 12 566.20, where a correction may happen.Then 12 578.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 12 605.63. Continuation would bring 12 616.86.

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Belarusian forex reserves rise 11.5 PCT in 2007 Q1 to 1.9 billion USD

Minsk, April 12 (NNN-BELTA) The gold and foreign currency reserves of Belarus increased by 202.3 million USD, or 11.5 per cent, to reach more than 1.9 billion USD in the first quarter of this year, according to preliminary estimates.

BelTA has been told by the information department of the National Bank of Belarus that the growth of the international assets of the country was fueled mainly by purchase/sale and conversion of foreign currency by the National Bank. These operations helped grow the gold and foreign currency reserves by 171 million USD.

The other factors which contributed to the build-up of the reserves were profits, increasing liabilities to foreign banks and cost of precious metals and gems and also an increase of the funds of the finance ministry in the National Bank of Belarus.

In 2007, the gold and foreign currency reserves of Belarus are expected to increase by between 200 million and 400 million USD.

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Forex - Yen lower, euro up vs US dollar in Sydney afternoon ahead of ECB meeting

SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - The US dollar was firmer against the yen here but down against the euro ahead of tonight's European Central Bank meeting, dealers said.

They said interest rates in the euro zone are not expected to be changed, while attention will focus on ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet's outlook statement and signals that the central bank may hike interest rates at its next meeting in May.

At 2:20 pm in Sydney (0420 GMT), the dollar was at 119.45 yen from 119.35 in Sydney morning trade while the euro was at 1.3460 usd, higher from 1.3438 earlier.

CMC Markets chief analyst Ashraf Laidi said the upward course of the euro remains safely in check even in the case of a pullback to as low as 1.3280 usd with traders continuing to deem the pair as fundamentally and technically sound, with periodic dips seen as opportune entry points.

GFT senior analyst Ian Copsey said the immediate risk for the US dollar still appears to be to the downside but there are signs that these will not develop in a trend and should, before too long, cause a more significant correction.

He said despite the consensus that euro zone rates will be left unchanged, political pressures from member countries over the high level of the euro and interest rates will remain ahead.

This includes France which is due to undergo the first round of presidential elections on April 22 followed by the second round of voting on May 6.

However, Copsey noted, 'Trichet has tended to almost shun any pressure with what appears to be a single minded determination to employ his own policies.'

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hit a fresh 16-year high of 0.8274 usd. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data showing the jobless rate fell back to a seasonally adjusted 30-year low of 4.5 pct in March, after coming in at 4.6 pct in February.

Westpac Bank strategists said the Australian dollar has benefited from a steady string of positive data and events in recent sessions so today's labor data adds to the general feeling of optimism towards the currency.

They noted there are increasingly risks that some of the positives may be starting to fray slightly including suggestions the level of Rinker shareholder uptake for Mexico's Cemex 14.2 bln usd takeover bid may be low, while there are possibilities over the coming weekend that the G7 meeting will comment on the yen carry trade.

But, they said, 'this has not stopped the Australian dollar from making fresh highs for the move and with the US dollar on the back-foot, it is hard not to see this move continuing for now.'

Sydney 2.20 pm (0420 GMT) vs Sydney 9.53 am (2353 GMT)

US dollar

yen 119.45 vs 119.35

sfr 1.2206 vs 1.2202

Euro

usd 1.3460 vs 1.3438

yen 160.76 vs 160.36

sfr 1.6429 vs 1.6397

stg 0.6817 vs 0.6800

Sterling

usd 1.9746 vs 1.9757

yen 235.79 vs 235.76

sfr 2.4100 vs 2.4104

Australian dollar

usd 0.8250 vs 0.8244

stg 0.4179 vs 0.4173

yen 98.530 vs 98.375

New Zealand dollar

usd 0.7269 vs 0.7278

paul.daniel@xfn.com

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DJ Forex Focus: Trade Tensions With China Will Hurt The Dollar

LONDON (Dow Jones)--As U.S. trade tensions with China ratchet higher, the dollar is only likely to suffer.

Any hopes that China might respond to U.S. pressure by accelerating the rise in the yuan appear as misplaced as ever.

As Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London, points out, this is because China can't afford to.

"The export sector remains the most dynamic source of employment growth in China," Chertkow said.

"Maintenance of social stability depends on absorption of workers migrating from rural to urban areas and seeking private sector jobs as state-run enterprises are rationalized and/or privatized."

The need to preserve a competitive edge in international markets remains paramount. So, he added, "rather than agreeing to allow the (yuan) to float freely, the Chinese authorities are likely to continue to render the exchange rate regime 'gradually' more flexible."

However, this hasn't stopped the U.S. from piling on the pressure after first quarter data showed that the China's trade surplus nearly doubled to $46.44 billion from $23.31 billion in the first quarter of 2006. The surplus with the U.S. alone rose 21.3% to $34.68 billion.

Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department appeared to have signaled a new line of attack when it slapped duties on imports of Chinese coated paper. For the last 23 years, the U.S. had classified China as a non-market economy exempt from such duties.

This week, the U.S. followed this up with two complaints to the World Trade Organization over the alleged failure of the Chinese to curb copyright violations on intellectual rights and market access for U.S. movies, DVDs, music and books.

Chris Turner, an international economist with ING Financial Markets in London, suggested that this might well be the start of a more "sector/product specific" policy of complaint by the U.S. ahead of presidential elections in 2008.

China itself responded to the shift by warning that the U.S. moves will "seriously damage" trade relations between the two countries.

Officials then promptly turned down an invitations to attend this weekend's meeting of G7 finance ministers in Washington - claiming that they had more important domestic issues to contend with.

China's absence, said Lena Komileva, G7 economist with international brokers Tullett Prebon in London, is "indicative of rising U.S.-China trade tensions."

How large an impact this has on markets remains to be seen.

"The question for financial markets is whether such a localized, sector specific development represents the start of a more hawkish policy on China," said ING's Turner.

There is also the question over whether controlled increases in the value of the yuan since it was released from a fixed peg against the dollar in July last year are now starting to curb export growth.

The most recent data for March shows that China's trade surplus actually fell to $6.9 billion from $23.8 billion in February.

There's certainly little sign that China is about to step on the accelerator and allow the yuan to rise more rapidly. If anything, reported Ashley Davies, a senior currency strategist with UBS in Singapore, "the pace of yuan appreciation has actually eased over the last month to slightly more than 1% annualized in March versus appreciation of around 6% annualized a month towards the end of 2006."

"We maintain our forecast for around 6% appreciation this year for now," Davies added.

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chertkow agrees.

"Despite the protectionist measures, the Chinese authorities are likely to continue to resist calls to allow the (yuan) to float freely against the dollar," he said, forecasting that the yuan will be allowed to continue rising against the dollar by no more than 5.0% over the next year.

Early Thursday, the dollar was trading unchanged at Y119.33 at 0705 GMT, compared with late New York Wednesday, according to EBS. The U.S. currency had been helped by more hawkish-than-expected comments in the latest FOMC minutes, released Wednesday.

However, anticipation that the European Central Bank will signal another hike in rates in the next month or two after its policy meeting later in the day helped to push the euro up to $1.3470 from $1.3430.

The euro's advance against the dollar was also helped by its rally to a new record high at Y160.87 as investors continued to pursue carry trades at the cost of the Japanese currency.

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Mid-Day Forex Technical Report - Dollar Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes, EUR/JPY Remains Strong

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes, EUR/JPY Remains Strong

Dollar is seen higher against Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen while remaining steady against Euro ahead of FOMC minutes. The minutes will be closely parsed by the markets for clues on future path of monetary policy of the Fed. But we believe that Bernanke should have elaborated most of the important points in the testimony to Joint Economic Committee. Those include change of wordings in last FOMC statement like replacing "additional firming", by "Future policy adjustments" which was then taken by the market as a clue for possible rate cut. Also, economic outlook was somewhat down graded, in particular the housing market was changed from "some tentative signs of stabilization" to "adjustment …is ongoing"

After all, Fed will likely remain hawkish and emphasize inflation as the predominant concern, in particular after core inflation bottomed at 2.6% last Dec and reaccelerated to 2.7% since then. As the economy continues to develop in a way that inflation pressure remains high, labor markets remain tight while capital spending and housing continues to slow down, the Fed's rate decision will become tighter. And hence, believe the most important focus should be the view of individual members and the change in hawkishness and dovishness of individual voting member will become more important. Before the FOMC minutes, Bernanke's speech will be also be closely watched.

Elsewhere, EUR/JPY remains strong and continues to make record higher today. Note that carry trade remains one key market moving factor with swissy and yen, as low yield currencies, continuing to weaken across the board. Sterling was earlier boosted by speculation that Treasury will propose allowing British based multinational companies to repatriate foreign profits free of tax, but upside against dollar is still limited by near term resistance of 1.9824.

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